Fig. 3

Observed monthly incidence during 2010–20 and predicted incidence without non-pharmaceutical interventions in 2020. Secular trends were estimated using the sixth month of each year to control for seasonality. The effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions were expressed as the slope change before and after the intervention. The number of rates is represented in log scale on the y-axis. Vertical line and shaded areas: introduction of non-pharmaceutical interventions. HFMD: Hand, foot, and mouth disease