Cost of treatment support for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis using patient-centred approaches in Ethiopia: a model-based method

Table 1 Monthly probabilities of serious adverse events, conversion rates and deaths used in simulation model, by week period

Period (weeks)	Prob (SAE)^b	Prob (convert)^c	Prob (death and dropout)^d
1–4	0.0175	0.62	0.013
5–8	0.0175	0.62
9–12	0.0175	0.27
13–16	0.0175	0.27
17–20	0.0101	0.27
21–24	0.0101	0.27
Up to week 48	0.0101	N/A^a

^aN/A is not applicable as patients who have not converted by week 24 were excluded from the model
^bAs SAEs are more likely during the intensive phase (weeks 1–16) than in the continuation phase, we considered the two period separately when calculating the probabilities. This was done under the assumption that no SAE can happen in consecutive months, but can happen a month apart
^cAs high number of patients were converting in the first 8 weeks, we assumed a constant, higher probability in the first eight weeks and lower afterwards
^dProbability of death and dropout are for each four-week interval. We assumed a constant probability throught the treatment duration. Death and dropout have been collated as in both cases the patients exit the model

ISSN: 2049-9957