Fig. 1

Monthly numbers, trends and fitted Poisson or quasi-Poisson segmented regression models for three outcomes in China from 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2019, not accounting for seasonality^#. Percentage of 30 − day ART initiation (a), mean CD4 count at ART initiation (b) and mean estimated time from infection to diagnosis (c). #: three indicators include proportion of 30-day ART initiation, mean CD4 counts (cells/μl) at ART initiation, and mean estimated time from infection to diagnosis (year). ART: Antiretroviral therapy. treat-all: June 2016. Percentage of 30-day ART initiation was modelled using quasi-Poisson segmented regression model. Mean CD4 count at ART initiation and mean estimated time from infection to diagnosis was modelled using Poisson segmented regression model