Table 2 Results of base case analysis and scenario analysis (fully-funded policy vs self-paid policy) (95% uncertainty range)
From: Cost-effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccination of children in China: a modeling analysis
Scenario | Strategy | Total influenza symptomatic cases averted | Total influenza hospitalizati-ons averted | Total influenza death averted | Total cost (USD, million) | Incremental cost (USD, million) | Total QALYs | Incremental QALYs | ICER |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Base-case | Fully-funded policy | 1,444,768 (1,203,446–1,719,761) | 92,110 (66,953–122,226) | 6494 (4590–8962) | 5927 (4600–7725) | 123 (−350 to 485) | 247,326,507 (247,285,841–247,353,414) | 15,051 (8499–25,205) | 7964 (cost-saving–45,356) |
Self-paid policy | 5803 (4189–7995) |  | 247,311,386 (247,260,803–247,344,681) |  | |||||
Scenario 1 | Fully-funded policy | 1,633,628 (1,374,744–1,923,970) | 104,748 (76,908–137,896) | 7307 (5259–10,056) | 5789 (4483–7512) | −13 (−518 to 386) | 247,328,548 (247,288,031–247,355,018) | 17,022 (9579–28,554) | Cost-saving (cost-saving–30,473) |
Self-paid policy | 5792 (4183–7959) |  | 247,311,651 (247,259,509–247,345,316) |  | |||||
Scenario 2 | Fully-funded policy | 1,005,258 (839,277–1,196,052) | 64,375 (46,762–86,090) | 4525 (3197–6215) | 5882 (4484–7730) | 87 (−238 to 341) | 247,322,686 (247,278,705–247,351,118) | 10,388 (5981–17,493) | 8183 (cost-saving–45,102) |
Self-paid policy | 5794 (4200–7913) |  | 247,312,330 (247,261,308–247,344,974) |  | |||||
Scenario 3 | Fully-funded policy | 1,445,261 (1,201,100–1,712,829) | 92,237 (67,297–123,245) | 6476 (4629–8949) | 5929 (4591–7726) | 139 (−337 to 505) | 247,326,784 (247,284,137–247,354,170) | 15,057 (8546–25,231) | 8787 (cost-saving–46,655) |
Self-paid policy | 5795 (4157–8007) |  | 247,311,680 (247,258,917–247,345,391) |  | |||||
Scenario 4 | Fully-funded policy | 1,444,726 (1,201,191–1,719,733) | 92,117 (66,950–122,304) | 6486 (4592–8962) | 1933 (1460–2866) | 678 (422 to 889) | 247,326,856 (247,287,021–247,353,147) | 14,971 (8685–24,942) | 44,673 (21,793–85,588) |
Self-paid policy | 1240 (717–2385) |  | 247,311,840 (247,262,261–247,344,057) |  | |||||
Scenario 5 | Fully- funded policy | 1,672,660 (1,419,236–1,957,137) | 107,649 (78,855–142,480) | 7535 (5376–10,323) | 5719 (4427–7434) | −48 (−571 to 358) | 247,329,654 (247,289,887–247,355,467) | 17,463 (9895–29,038) | Cost-saving (cost-saving–26,931) |
Self-paid policy | 5763 (4133–7960) |  | 247,312,198 (247,260,819–247,345,467) |  | |||||
Scenario 6 | Fully- funded policy | 1,633,592 (1,370,504–1,930,172) | 104,184 (76,035–138,828) | 7367 (5234–10,110) | 5805 (4522–7558) | 0 (−531 to 403) | 247,328,974 (247,288,475–247,354,283) | 16,905 (9787–28,618) | Cost-saving (cost-saving–32,730) |
Self-paid policy | 5801 (4170–8030) |  | 247,312,094 (247,260,052–247,344,395) |  |