Fig. 4
From: A potential transition from a concentrated to a generalized HIV epidemic: the case of Madagascar
a, b Turning points (blue, left vertical axis) and expected prevalence in 2033 (magenta, right vertical axis) calculated for the projected temporal evolution of total disease prevalence within the general population in the 10 cities. Box plots represent distributions across the parameter configurations that provided a good fit to data for the period 2000–2016. In a, parametric configurations were searched within pYX values between 0.0 and 0.001, as indicated in Additional file 1: Table SA1, while, in b, searches were conducted by constraining even more pYX (between 0.0 and 0.0004), to mimic the effect of circumcision as a 60% reduction in transmission from females to males. Anta Antananarivo; Ants Antsirabe; Maha Mahajanga; Toam Toamasina; Fian Fianarantsoa; Toli Toliary; Taol Taolagnaro; Mora Moramanga; Moro Morondava; Nosy Nosy Be