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Table 2 Results of phase 1A surveys and comparison of observed and predicted prevalences for each evaluation area

From: Progress towards onchocerciasis elimination in the participating countries of the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control: epidemiological evaluation results

Country Evaluation area Maximum pre-control prevalence of nodules in evaluated villages (%) Treatment History Year of evaluation        Comparison with Onchosim model predictions
Start year of treatment Treatment rounds with >60% coverage   Number of villages surveyed Number of persons examined Number mf positive % mf positive Maximum village prevalence of mf (%) Maximum village CMFL (mf/s) Mean village prevalence of mf (%) Predicted mean prevalence of mf (%) Probability that true prevalence < predicted prevalence (Pl) Probability that true prevalence > predicted prevalence (PH) Progress towards eliminationa
Burundi Cibitoke Bubanza 49.1 2005 6 2012 10 3,424 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.5 1.000 0.000 ++
Cameroon Adamawa II 57.5 1999 9 2012 9 2,816 53 1.9 6.8 0.2 1.7 8.3 0.999 0.001 ++
  Centre 1 71.9 2001 9 2011 12 2,576 1,377 53.5 71.6 5.3 52.3 31.0 0.000 1.000
  Littoral 2 59.9 2000 9 2011 10 1,576 759 48.2 69.4 5.1 48.6 16.5 0.000 1.000
  North Tchollire 54.0 1999 10 2010 9 1,377 84 6.1 32.8 3.2 6.8 8.1 0.579 0.421 +
  North Toubouro 81.9 1989 21 2010 10 1,230 48 3.9 12.2 0.3 4.0 1.3 0.000 1.000
  South West I 71.7 1999 10 2012 8 2,159 257 11.9 45.5 6.8 14.2 13.3 0.341 0.660 +
  South West II 65.6 2001 8 2012 9 2,055 283 13.8 41.2 5.3 13.2 18.9 0.927 0.073 +
  Western Province 86.4 2001 8 2011 14 3,239 284 8.8 38.6 1.3 9.7 32.0 1.000 0.000 ++
CAR Basse-Kotto 59.7 1999 12 2010 9 2,758 41 1.5 3.8 0.1 1.6 8.6 1.000 0.000 ++
  Ouaham Pende 60.1 1999 15 2012 10 2,455 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.9 1.000 0.000 ++
  Ouaka 64.6 1999 13 2012 9 2,443 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.996 0.004 ++
Chad Logon Occidental 37.9 1998 11 2012 10 3,320 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.239 0.739 +
  Logone Oriental 62.8 1998 11 2012 19 4,403 5 0.1 2.1 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.883 0.117 +
  Mayo Kebbi East 45.2 1998 12 2013 5 1,660 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.295 0.553 +
  Mayo Kebbi West 44.4 1998 12 2013 18 6,425 1 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.227 0.772 +
  Moyen-Chari 40.1 1998 8 2009 9 1,337 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4 0.997 0.003 ++
Congo Bouenza 28.3 2001 7 2011 10 1,585 13 0.8 5.6 0.0 0.7 8.4 1.000 0.000 ++
  Pool 51.0 2004 7 2012 22 3,335 485 14.5 52.3 8.8 15.7 11.6 0.041 0.959 +
DRC Bas-Congo 65.9 2004 3 2012 22 4,823 2,140 44.4 71.3 9.8 40.5 49.3 0.989 0.011 ++
  Sankuru 86.3 2003 3 2011 11 1,494 810 54.2 89.7 14.4 51.8 74.0 1.000 0.000 ++
  Uélé 96.4 2002 5 2012 10 1,752 595 34.0 68.4 4.9 33.3 62.5 1.000 0.000 ++
Ethiopia Kafa,Shekka,Bench Maji 47.4 2001 7 2011 10 2,167 111 5.1 19.2 0.4 4.7 19.9 1.000 0.000 ++
  North Gondar 31.2 2003 7 2011 10 1,927 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.7 1.000 0.000 ++
Liberia Lofa, Bong, Nimba 27.6 1999 5 2013 19 3,554 244 6.9 18.1 1.0 6.6 17.6 0.999 0.001 ++
Malawi Malawi Extension 21.6 2000 7 2011 9 1,960 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.8 1.000 0.000 ++
  Thyolo Muanza 34.1 1999 7 2011 11 2,375 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.2 1.000 0.000 ++
Nigeria Adamawa 51.5 2001 11 2012 10 1,574 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.523 0.477 +
  Cross river 56.1 1998 11 2009 20 3,583 81 2.3 8.3 0.5 2.4 3.0 0.430 0.570 +
  Ebonyi 60.2 1999 11 2010 11 1,976 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1 0.999 0.001 ++
  Edo, Ondo 36.4 2001 8 2010 7 1,540 422 27.4 54.7 3.3 30.2 9.8 0.000 1.000
  Ekiti 22.8 2000 12 2012 10 1,939 36 1.9 12.0 0.5 1.9 0.4 0.003 0.997
  Enugu, Anambra 63.0 1999 11 2011 11 2,396 86 3.6 13.7 0.2 3.6 4.5 0.602 0.398 +
  FCT 21.1 1999 14 2013 10 1,385 2 0.1 2.9 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.029 0.966 +
  Kaduna 55.8 1991 17 2008 29 5,988 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.041 0.959 +
  Kano 26.0 2001 12 2013 12 1,820 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.262 0.738 +
  Kebbi 21.5 2002 7 2013 7 1,365 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8 1.000 0.000 ++
  Kwara 32.2 1999 13 2013 12 2,013 29 1.4 11.2 0.5 1.3 0.3 0.001 0.999
  Niger 28.7 2000 12 2013 15 2,820 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.459 0.541 +
  Osun 25.6 1998 12 2012 11 1,544 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.882 0.118 +
  Oyo 35.2 2000 9 2013 11 1,235 6 0.5 6.5 0.2 0.9 3.8 0.925 0.075 +
  Plateau Nassarawa 51.5 1998 14 2012 10 1,912 2 0.1 1.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.154 0.846 +
  Taraba 61.8 1998 11 2009 10 1,695 214 12.6 60.8 4.6 16.9 6.3 0.000 1.000
  Zamfara 12.8 2001 9 2010 7 1,007 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.835 0.165 +
Tanzania Kilosa 25.1 2002 10 2012 10 1,488 37 2.5 19.5 1.2 3.3 1.1 0.011 0.990
  Mahenge 78.7 1998 7 2009 10 1,792 176 9.8 21.9 2.2 8.3 43.8 1.000 0.000 ++
  Morogoro 35.7 2004 7 2013 20 3,406 169 5.0 33.7 3.4 6.1 8.2 0.727 0.273 +
  Ruvuma 92.3 1999 10 2011 12 2,638 104 3.9 16.2 0.4 4.4 20.2 1.000 0.000 ++
  Tanga 35.4 2000 9 2010 10 2,047 6 0.3 2.2 0.1 0.4 4.3 0.999 0.001 ++
  Tukuyu 39.7 2001 10 2011 10 1,861 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 1.000 0.000 ++
  Tunduru 58.0 1995 16 2013 10 1,832 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.331 0.669 +
Uganda Kasese 45.5 1998 11 2010 10 1,510 51 3.4 12.1 0.1 3.1 4.6 0.651 0.349 +
  Arua Nebbie 87.3 1999 11 2009 21 3,894 90 2.3 32.1 1.0 3.8 10.5 1.000 0.000 ++
  Adjumani Mojo 34.9 1999 11 2010 9 1,180 35 3.0 6.7 0.0 2.5 1.4 0.036 0.964 +
Total       639 127,665 9,136 7.2 89.7 14.4   12.1    
  1. aDecline in prevalence of mf: ++ Faster: prevalence declining significantly faster than predicted (pL > 0.975)
  2. +On track: prevalence not significantly lower or higher than predicted (pL < 0.975 and pH < 0.975)
  3. -Delayed: prevalence declining significantly slower than predicted (pH> 0.975)