Table 2 Results of phase 1A surveys and comparison of observed and predicted prevalences for each evaluation area
Country | Evaluation area | Maximum pre-control prevalence of nodules in evaluated villages (%) | Treatment History | Year of evaluation | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | Comparison with Onchosim model predictions | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Start year of treatment | Treatment rounds with >60% coverage | Â | Number of villages surveyed | Number of persons examined | Number mf positive | % mf positive | Maximum village prevalence of mf (%) | Maximum village CMFL (mf/s) | Mean village prevalence of mf (%) | Predicted mean prevalence of mf (%) | Probability that true prevalence < predicted prevalence (Pl) | Probability that true prevalence > predicted prevalence (PH) | Progress towards eliminationa | |||
Burundi | Cibitoke Bubanza | 49.1 | 2005 | 6 | 2012 | 10 | 3,424 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 17.5 | 1.000 | 0.000 | ++ |
Cameroon | Adamawa II | 57.5 | 1999 | 9 | 2012 | 9 | 2,816 | 53 | 1.9 | 6.8 | 0.2 | 1.7 | 8.3 | 0.999 | 0.001 | ++ |
|  | Centre 1 | 71.9 | 2001 | 9 | 2011 | 12 | 2,576 | 1,377 | 53.5 | 71.6 | 5.3 | 52.3 | 31.0 | 0.000 | 1.000 | − |
|  | Littoral 2 | 59.9 | 2000 | 9 | 2011 | 10 | 1,576 | 759 | 48.2 | 69.4 | 5.1 | 48.6 | 16.5 | 0.000 | 1.000 | − |
| Â | North Tchollire | 54.0 | 1999 | 10 | 2010 | 9 | 1,377 | 84 | 6.1 | 32.8 | 3.2 | 6.8 | 8.1 | 0.579 | 0.421 | + |
|  | North Toubouro | 81.9 | 1989 | 21 | 2010 | 10 | 1,230 | 48 | 3.9 | 12.2 | 0.3 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.000 | 1.000 | − |
| Â | South West I | 71.7 | 1999 | 10 | 2012 | 8 | 2,159 | 257 | 11.9 | 45.5 | 6.8 | 14.2 | 13.3 | 0.341 | 0.660 | + |
| Â | South West II | 65.6 | 2001 | 8 | 2012 | 9 | 2,055 | 283 | 13.8 | 41.2 | 5.3 | 13.2 | 18.9 | 0.927 | 0.073 | + |
| Â | Western Province | 86.4 | 2001 | 8 | 2011 | 14 | 3,239 | 284 | 8.8 | 38.6 | 1.3 | 9.7 | 32.0 | 1.000 | 0.000 | ++ |
CAR | Basse-Kotto | 59.7 | 1999 | 12 | 2010 | 9 | 2,758 | 41 | 1.5 | 3.8 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 8.6 | 1.000 | 0.000 | ++ |
| Â | Ouaham Pende | 60.1 | 1999 | 15 | 2012 | 10 | 2,455 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.9 | 1.000 | 0.000 | ++ |
| Â | Ouaka | 64.6 | 1999 | 13 | 2012 | 9 | 2,443 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 0.996 | 0.004 | ++ |
Chad | Logon Occidental | 37.9 | 1998 | 11 | 2012 | 10 | 3,320 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.239 | 0.739 | + |
| Â | Logone Oriental | 62.8 | 1998 | 11 | 2012 | 19 | 4,403 | 5 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 0.883 | 0.117 | + |
| Â | Mayo Kebbi East | 45.2 | 1998 | 12 | 2013 | 5 | 1,660 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.295 | 0.553 | + |
| Â | Mayo Kebbi West | 44.4 | 1998 | 12 | 2013 | 18 | 6,425 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.227 | 0.772 | + |
| Â | Moyen-Chari | 40.1 | 1998 | 8 | 2009 | 9 | 1,337 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.4 | 0.997 | 0.003 | ++ |
Congo | Bouenza | 28.3 | 2001 | 7 | 2011 | 10 | 1,585 | 13 | 0.8 | 5.6 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 8.4 | 1.000 | 0.000 | ++ |
| Â | Pool | 51.0 | 2004 | 7 | 2012 | 22 | 3,335 | 485 | 14.5 | 52.3 | 8.8 | 15.7 | 11.6 | 0.041 | 0.959 | + |
DRC | Bas-Congo | 65.9 | 2004 | 3 | 2012 | 22 | 4,823 | 2,140 | 44.4 | 71.3 | 9.8 | 40.5 | 49.3 | 0.989 | 0.011 | ++ |
| Â | Sankuru | 86.3 | 2003 | 3 | 2011 | 11 | 1,494 | 810 | 54.2 | 89.7 | 14.4 | 51.8 | 74.0 | 1.000 | 0.000 | ++ |
|  | Uélé | 96.4 | 2002 | 5 | 2012 | 10 | 1,752 | 595 | 34.0 | 68.4 | 4.9 | 33.3 | 62.5 | 1.000 | 0.000 | ++ |
Ethiopia | Kafa,Shekka,Bench Maji | 47.4 | 2001 | 7 | 2011 | 10 | 2,167 | 111 | 5.1 | 19.2 | 0.4 | 4.7 | 19.9 | 1.000 | 0.000 | ++ |
| Â | North Gondar | 31.2 | 2003 | 7 | 2011 | 10 | 1,927 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.7 | 1.000 | 0.000 | ++ |
Liberia | Lofa, Bong, Nimba | 27.6 | 1999 | 5 | 2013 | 19 | 3,554 | 244 | 6.9 | 18.1 | 1.0 | 6.6 | 17.6 | 0.999 | 0.001 | ++ |
Malawi | Malawi Extension | 21.6 | 2000 | 7 | 2011 | 9 | 1,960 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.8 | 1.000 | 0.000 | ++ |
| Â | Thyolo Muanza | 34.1 | 1999 | 7 | 2011 | 11 | 2,375 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.2 | 1.000 | 0.000 | ++ |
Nigeria | Adamawa | 51.5 | 2001 | 11 | 2012 | 10 | 1,574 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.523 | 0.477 | + |
| Â | Cross river | 56.1 | 1998 | 11 | 2009 | 20 | 3,583 | 81 | 2.3 | 8.3 | 0.5 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 0.430 | 0.570 | + |
| Â | Ebonyi | 60.2 | 1999 | 11 | 2010 | 11 | 1,976 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.1 | 0.999 | 0.001 | ++ |
|  | Edo, Ondo | 36.4 | 2001 | 8 | 2010 | 7 | 1,540 | 422 | 27.4 | 54.7 | 3.3 | 30.2 | 9.8 | 0.000 | 1.000 | − |
|  | Ekiti | 22.8 | 2000 | 12 | 2012 | 10 | 1,939 | 36 | 1.9 | 12.0 | 0.5 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.003 | 0.997 | − |
| Â | Enugu, Anambra | 63.0 | 1999 | 11 | 2011 | 11 | 2,396 | 86 | 3.6 | 13.7 | 0.2 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 0.602 | 0.398 | + |
| Â | FCT | 21.1 | 1999 | 14 | 2013 | 10 | 1,385 | 2 | 0.1 | 2.9 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.029 | 0.966 | + |
| Â | Kaduna | 55.8 | 1991 | 17 | 2008 | 29 | 5,988 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.041 | 0.959 | + |
| Â | Kano | 26.0 | 2001 | 12 | 2013 | 12 | 1,820 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.262 | 0.738 | + |
| Â | Kebbi | 21.5 | 2002 | 7 | 2013 | 7 | 1,365 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.8 | 1.000 | 0.000 | ++ |
|  | Kwara | 32.2 | 1999 | 13 | 2013 | 12 | 2,013 | 29 | 1.4 | 11.2 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.001 | 0.999 | − |
| Â | Niger | 28.7 | 2000 | 12 | 2013 | 15 | 2,820 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.459 | 0.541 | + |
| Â | Osun | 25.6 | 1998 | 12 | 2012 | 11 | 1,544 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 0.882 | 0.118 | + |
| Â | Oyo | 35.2 | 2000 | 9 | 2013 | 11 | 1,235 | 6 | 0.5 | 6.5 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 3.8 | 0.925 | 0.075 | + |
| Â | Plateau Nassarawa | 51.5 | 1998 | 14 | 2012 | 10 | 1,912 | 2 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.154 | 0.846 | + |
|  | Taraba | 61.8 | 1998 | 11 | 2009 | 10 | 1,695 | 214 | 12.6 | 60.8 | 4.6 | 16.9 | 6.3 | 0.000 | 1.000 | − |
| Â | Zamfara | 12.8 | 2001 | 9 | 2010 | 7 | 1,007 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 0.835 | 0.165 | + |
Tanzania | Kilosa | 25.1 | 2002 | 10 | 2012 | 10 | 1,488 | 37 | 2.5 | 19.5 | 1.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.011 | 0.990 | − |
| Â | Mahenge | 78.7 | 1998 | 7 | 2009 | 10 | 1,792 | 176 | 9.8 | 21.9 | 2.2 | 8.3 | 43.8 | 1.000 | 0.000 | ++ |
| Â | Morogoro | 35.7 | 2004 | 7 | 2013 | 20 | 3,406 | 169 | 5.0 | 33.7 | 3.4 | 6.1 | 8.2 | 0.727 | 0.273 | + |
| Â | Ruvuma | 92.3 | 1999 | 10 | 2011 | 12 | 2,638 | 104 | 3.9 | 16.2 | 0.4 | 4.4 | 20.2 | 1.000 | 0.000 | ++ |
| Â | Tanga | 35.4 | 2000 | 9 | 2010 | 10 | 2,047 | 6 | 0.3 | 2.2 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 4.3 | 0.999 | 0.001 | ++ |
| Â | Tukuyu | 39.7 | 2001 | 10 | 2011 | 10 | 1,861 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.2 | 1.000 | 0.000 | ++ |
| Â | Tunduru | 58.0 | 1995 | 16 | 2013 | 10 | 1,832 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.331 | 0.669 | + |
Uganda | Kasese | 45.5 | 1998 | 11 | 2010 | 10 | 1,510 | 51 | 3.4 | 12.1 | 0.1 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 0.651 | 0.349 | + |
| Â | Arua Nebbie | 87.3 | 1999 | 11 | 2009 | 21 | 3,894 | 90 | 2.3 | 32.1 | 1.0 | 3.8 | 10.5 | 1.000 | 0.000 | ++ |
| Â | Adjumani Mojo | 34.9 | 1999 | 11 | 2010 | 9 | 1,180 | 35 | 3.0 | 6.7 | 0.0 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.036 | 0.964 | + |
Total | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â | 639 | 127,665 | 9,136 | 7.2 | 89.7 | 14.4 | Â | 12.1 | Â | Â | Â |