Fig. 6
From: Climate drivers of vector-borne diseases in Africa and their relevance to control programmes
a–d These maps show the historical probability (given in percentile) of seasonal average of CHIRPS monthly rainfall falling within the upper (wet), one-third (“tercile”) of the 1983–2015 distribution in the country given the occurrence of El Niño/La Niña during that same season. A dry mask is used whenever the sum total of rainfall is ≤10 mm for the three month period. a) the probability of El Niño associated above normal rainfall for Oct–Dec (note the severe impact in Eastern Equatorial Africa); and b) El Niño associated below normal rainfall impact for Jul–Sep (note the severe impact in Ethiopia); c) La Niña associated above normal rainfall for Dec–Feb (note the severe impact in Southern Africa; d) El Niño associated above normal rainfall for Mar–May (note the absence of impact for this main rainy season in Eastern Africa