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Table 3 Climate drivers and levels of predictability for WHO-TDR study regions + provides an indication of the strength of the relationship

From: Climate drivers of vector-borne diseases in Africa and their relevance to control programmes

Region ENSO impact ENSO predictability Decadal Impact Decadal predictability Long term change Climate Change predictions
Eastern Africa +++ for rainfall for OND.
+++ for temperature in tropics for extended period following ENSO onset.
Tanzania - rainfall impact focused on northern and western regions
Kenya - with temperature signal particular important in extensive highland areas.
+++ for rainfall OND in conjunction with Indian Ocean Dipole.
+++ for temperature in tropics for extended period following ENSO onset.
Tanzania - with rainfall forecast skill focused on regions where OND rainfall occurs.
Kenya - with temperature prediction particular important in extensive highland areas.
+++ for rainfall for MAM.
+++ for temperature.
Rainfall not predictable in operational context.
+ Temperature predictable from long term change if decadal signal is weak.
+++ for temperature warming.
+ Rainfall scenarios indicate wet.
+++ for temperatures warming.
+ for rainfall getting wetter.
Western Africa (including Sahel)
(Valid for Mauretania and Ivory Coast)
++ for rainfall for JAS in Sahel.
+++ for temperature in tropics for extended period following ENSO onset.
++ for rainfall for JAS in Sahel.
+++ for temperature following ENSO onset.
+++ rainfall JAS.
+++ temperature.
Rainfall not predictable in operational context.
+ Temperature not predictable in operational but long term change signal may be visible at shorter timescales if not masked by decadal signal.
+++ for temperature warming. Rainfall scenarios indicate both wet and dry. +++ for temperatures warming.
Rainfall highly uncertainty.
Southern Africa
(Valid for Botswana and Zimbabwe)
+++ for rainfall in DJF.
+++ for temperature in tropics for extended period following ENSO onset.
+++ for rainfall in NDJ.
+++ for temperature in tropics for extended period following ENSO onset.
++ for rainfall season.
+++ for temperature in tropics.
Rainfall not predictable in operational context.
+ Temperature long term change signal may be visible at shorter timescales if not masked by decadal signal.
+++ for temperature warming.
++ Rainfall observations indicate dry.
+++ for temperatures getting warming.
++ for rainfall drying.
  1. + = weak; ++ moderate; +++ strong; ENSO El Niño Southern Oscillation, MAM March–April-May, JAS July–August-September, OND October–November-December, NDJ November–December-January, DJF December–January-February