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Table 3 Climate drivers and levels of predictability for WHO-TDR study regions + provides an indication of the strength of the relationship

From: Climate drivers of vector-borne diseases in Africa and their relevance to control programmes

Region ENSO impact ENSO predictability Decadal Impact Decadal predictability Long term change Climate Change predictions
Eastern Africa +++ for rainfall for OND. +++ for temperature in tropics for extended period following ENSO onset. Tanzania - rainfall impact focused on northern and western regions Kenya - with temperature signal particular important in extensive highland areas. +++ for rainfall OND in conjunction with Indian Ocean Dipole. +++ for temperature in tropics for extended period following ENSO onset. Tanzania - with rainfall forecast skill focused on regions where OND rainfall occurs. Kenya - with temperature prediction particular important in extensive highland areas. +++ for rainfall for MAM. +++ for temperature. Rainfall not predictable in operational context. + Temperature predictable from long term change if decadal signal is weak. +++ for temperature warming. + Rainfall scenarios indicate wet. +++ for temperatures warming. + for rainfall getting wetter.
Western Africa (including Sahel) (Valid for Mauretania and Ivory Coast) ++ for rainfall for JAS in Sahel. +++ for temperature in tropics for extended period following ENSO onset. ++ for rainfall for JAS in Sahel. +++ for temperature following ENSO onset. +++ rainfall JAS. +++ temperature. Rainfall not predictable in operational context. + Temperature not predictable in operational but long term change signal may be visible at shorter timescales if not masked by decadal signal. +++ for temperature warming. Rainfall scenarios indicate both wet and dry. +++ for temperatures warming. Rainfall highly uncertainty.
Southern Africa (Valid for Botswana and Zimbabwe) +++ for rainfall in DJF. +++ for temperature in tropics for extended period following ENSO onset. +++ for rainfall in NDJ. +++ for temperature in tropics for extended period following ENSO onset. ++ for rainfall season. +++ for temperature in tropics. Rainfall not predictable in operational context. + Temperature long term change signal may be visible at shorter timescales if not masked by decadal signal. +++ for temperature warming. ++ Rainfall observations indicate dry. +++ for temperatures getting warming. ++ for rainfall drying.
  1. + = weak; ++ moderate; +++ strong; ENSO El Niño Southern Oscillation, MAM March–April-May, JAS July–August-September, OND October–November-December, NDJ November–December-January, DJF December–January-February