Table 2 Markov model probabilities input and sources
Description/Explanation | Value | Source | |
|---|---|---|---|
a | Probability of dying among Uninfected or LTBI | 0.007 | National Bureau of Statistics of China [19] |
b | Probability of acquiring DS LTBI from being Uninfected, varies with DS-TB+ prevalence. b = (t1n1 + t2n2)/N0, where t1 is the number of ‘DS-TB+ treated’, n1 is the number of infections each ‘DS-TB+ treated’ person causes, t2 is representing ‘DS-TB+ untreated’ cases, n2 is the number of infections each ‘DS-TB+ untreated’ person causes, and N0 is the total number of the ‘Uninfected’. | Initial value is 0.003 | Assumed based on finding from WHO [1], Huang LQ [20], and Sun CF [21] |
c | Probability of acquiring MDR LTBI from being Uninfected, varies with MDR-TB prevalence. c = (t3n3 + t4n4)/N0, where t3 is the number of ‘MDR-TB treated’, n3 is the number of infections each ‘MDR-TB treated’ person causes, t4 is representing ‘MDR-TB untreated’ cases, n4 is the number of infections each ‘MDR-TB untreated’ person causes, and N0 is the total number of the ‘Uninfected’. | Initial value is 0.0005 | Assumed based on finding from WHO [1], Huang LQ [20], and Sun CF [21] |
d | Probability of clearing MTB infection for DS LTBI persons | 0.05 | Xu KJ [22] |
e | Probability of clearing MTB infection for MDR LTBI persons | 0.05 | Xu KJ [22] |
f | Probability of acquiring active DS-TB+ from LTBI | 0.004 | Assumed based on finding from Gao L [17], Mandal P [23], and Xu J [24] |
g | Probability of acquiring active MDR-TB from LTBI | 0.004 | Assumed based on finding from Gao L [17], Mandal P [23], and Xu J [24] |
h | Probability of acquiring treatment for DS-TB+ | 0.87 | WHO [1] |
i | Probability of acquiring treatment for MDR-TB | 0.10 | WHO [1] |
j | Probability of treatment failure and loss to follow up for DS-TB+ | 0.04 | WHO tuberculosis database [25] |
k | Probability of treatment failure and loss to follow up for MDR-TB | 0.13 | WHO tuberculosis database [25] |
l | Probability of dying among untreated DS-TB+ | 0.10 | Assumed based on finding from WHO [1] |
m | Probability of dying among untreated MDR-TB | 0.40 | Assumed based on finding from WHO [1] |
n | Probability of dying among treated DS-TB+ | 0.01 | WHO tuberculosis database [25] |
o | Probability of dying among treated MDR-TB | 0.04 | WHO tuberculosis database [25] |
p | Probability of treatment success for DS-TB+ | 0.93 | WHO tuberculosis database [25] |
q | Probability of treatment success for MDR-TB | 0.41 | WHO tuberculosis database [25] |
r | Probability of acquired drug resistance from DS-TB+ to MDR-TB | 0.014 | WHO tuberculosis database [25] |