Risk estimation and prediction of the transmission of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) in the mainland of China excluding Hubei province

Table 1 State variables and initial values in Model (1)

Definitions	State variables	Initial values	Geweke	Source
Susceptible population	S(t)	1 336 210 000	–	[27]
Exposed population	E(t)	501.23	0.92956	MCMC
Symptomatic infected population	I(t)	0.22839	0.95511	MCMC
Asymptomatic infected population	A(t)	991.29	0.81969	MCMC
Isolated susceptible population	S_i(t)	0	–	Data
Quarantined infected population	Q(t)	0	–	Data
Infected population in hospitals	H(t)	21	–	Data
Recovered population	R(t)	240.76	0.63851	MCMC
Recovered population from hospitals	R_h(t)	0	–	Data
Cumulative number of dead cases in hospitals	D(t)	0	–	Data
Total number of reported cases	T(t)	21	–	Data

MCMC Markov Chain Monte Carlo method; Data COVID-19 daily data excluding Hubei province archived from NHCC

ISSN: 2049-9957