Table 2 Definition of the parameters
Interpretations | Parameters | Values | Geweke | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Probability of transmission per contact | β | 0.054043 | 0.92594 | MCMC |
Initial contact rate | c0 | 40.319 | 0.99203 | MCMC |
Transition rate of exposed individuals | ϕ | 1/5.2 | – | [7] |
to the infected class | ||||
Probability of having symptoms | θ | 0.6628 | 0.91799 | MCMC |
among infected individuals | ||||
Transition rate of quarantined infected | η | 17.379 | 0.59129 | MCMC |
individuals to hospital class | ||||
Recovery rate of symptomatic | γI | 0.15796 | 0.7351 | MCMC |
infectious individuals | ||||
Recovery rate of asymptomatic | γA | 0.55671 | 0.99168 | MCMC |
infected individuals | ||||
Recovery rate of quarantined | γH | 0.035352 | 0.97782 | MCMC |
infected individuals | ||||
Disease-induced death rate | d | 5.5888×10−4 | 0.98847 | MCMC |
Correction factor of transmission probability | ξ | 0.80987 | 0.74505 | MCMC |
with asymptomatic infectious individuals | ||||
Rate at which the quarantined uninfected | μ | 1/14 | – | [2] |
contacts were released | ||||
Intervention coefficient with respect | q1 | – | – | Assumption |
to contact | ||||
Intervention parameter with respect | q2 | 0.47218 | 0.9302 | MCMC |
to patient detection | ||||
Intervention parameter with respect | q3 | 2.6954 | 0.55476 | MCMC |
to close contact tracing | ||||
Exponential decreasing rate of contact rate | δ | 2.8286×10−4 | 0.99962 | MCMC |