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Table 2 Definition of the parameters

From: Risk estimation and prediction of the transmission of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) in the mainland of China excluding Hubei province

Interpretations Parameters Values Geweke Source
Probability of transmission per contact β 0.054043 0.92594 MCMC
Initial contact rate c0 40.319 0.99203 MCMC
Transition rate of exposed individuals ϕ 1/5.2 [7]
to the infected class     
Probability of having symptoms θ 0.6628 0.91799 MCMC
among infected individuals     
Transition rate of quarantined infected η 17.379 0.59129 MCMC
individuals to hospital class     
Recovery rate of symptomatic γI 0.15796 0.7351 MCMC
infectious individuals     
Recovery rate of asymptomatic γA 0.55671 0.99168 MCMC
infected individuals     
Recovery rate of quarantined γH 0.035352 0.97782 MCMC
infected individuals     
Disease-induced death rate d 5.5888×10−4 0.98847 MCMC
Correction factor of transmission probability ξ 0.80987 0.74505 MCMC
with asymptomatic infectious individuals     
Rate at which the quarantined uninfected μ 1/14 [2]
contacts were released     
Intervention coefficient with respect q1 Assumption
to contact     
Intervention parameter with respect q2 0.47218 0.9302 MCMC
to patient detection     
Intervention parameter with respect q3 2.6954 0.55476 MCMC
to close contact tracing     
Exponential decreasing rate of contact rate δ 2.8286×10−4 0.99962 MCMC
  1. MCMC Markov Chain Monte Carlo method