From: Estimating the daily trend in the size of the COVID-19 infected population in Wuhan
Notation | Meaning | State | Reference |
---|---|---|---|
T_{t} | The reported number of confirmed cases outside Hubei province on Day t | Known | Official websites |
I_{t} | The observed number of imported cases on Day t | Known | Official websites |
L_{t} | The observed number of local cases on Day t | Known | Official websites |
U_{t} | The number of cases with no information on Day t | Known | U_{t} = T_{t} − I_{t} − L_{t} |
x_{t} | The number of imported cases on Day t | Estimated | |
X_{t} | The cumulative number of imported cases by Day t | Estimated | \( {X}_t={\sum}_{k=1}^t{x}_k \) |
N_{t} | The cumulative number of cases that should be confirmed in Wuhan by Day t | Estimated | |
t_{0} | The date of infection for the very first case | Estimated | |
p | The daily probability of departing from Wuhan | Known | [7, 8] |
d | The time from infection to detection | Known | [9] |
t_{c} | The time when N_{t} increases at the fastest rate | Known | From our data |
r | A parameter that determines the growth rate of N_{t} | Known | [3] |
K | The size of the population that are susceptible to COVID-19 in Wuhan. | Estimated |