From: Inference and prediction of malaria transmission dynamics using time series data
Parameter | Description | Values |
---|---|---|
y_{t} | Output of the data-driven stochastic model at time step t | CISDCP |
x_{t} | Output of the weather-driven model at time step t | Hidden |
T | Average temperature | MODIS |
R | Average rainfall | TRMM |
f_{u} | Number of degree days needed for mosquito maturation | 36.5 [40] |
g_{u} | Threshold below which gonotrophic development ceases | 9.9 [40] |
γ | Probability of a mosquitoes surviving through a gonotrophic cycle | 0.5 [40] |
f_{n} | Number of degree days required for parasite development | 105 [33] |
g_{n} | Threshold below which parasite development ceases | 18°C [40] |
h | Human blood index | 0.7 [40] |
g | Per-capita daily death rate of a mosquito | |
u | Gonotrophic cycle length | Equation 8 |
a | Human feeding rate | a=h/u |
p | Probability of a mosquito survive through one whole day | p=e^{−g}=γ^{1/u} |
n | Sporogonic cycle length | Equation 9 |
m | Mosquito density per person | m=10R [40] |
b | Transmission efficiency from mosquito to human | |
c | Transmission efficiency from human to mosquito | |
β | Mutual transmission efficiency: β=bc | To be estimated |
r | Human recovery rate | To be estimated |
α_{1} | Coefficient of the weather-driven model | To be estimated |
α_{2} | Magnitude of the seasonal effect | To be estimated |
ω | Seasonality parameter | To be estimated |
σ | Variance of observation noise | To be estimated |