Inference and prediction of malaria transmission dynamics using time series data

Table 1 Descriptions and values of model parameters and variables

Parameter	Description	Values
y_t	Output of the data-driven stochastic model at time step t	CISDCP
x_t	Output of the weather-driven model at time step t	Hidden
T	Average temperature	MODIS
R	Average rainfall	TRMM
f_u	Number of degree days needed for mosquito maturation	36.5 [40]
g_u	Threshold below which gonotrophic development ceases	9.9 [40]
γ	Probability of a mosquitoes surviving through a gonotrophic cycle	0.5 [40]
f_n	Number of degree days required for parasite development	105 [33]
g_n	Threshold below which parasite development ceases	18°C [40]
h	Human blood index	0.7 [40]
g	Per-capita daily death rate of a mosquito
u	Gonotrophic cycle length	Equation 8
a	Human feeding rate	a=h/u
p	Probability of a mosquito survive through one whole day	p=e^−g=γ^1/u
n	Sporogonic cycle length	Equation 9
m	Mosquito density per person	m=10R [40]
b	Transmission efficiency from mosquito to human
c	Transmission efficiency from human to mosquito
β	Mutual transmission efficiency: β=bc	To be estimated
r	Human recovery rate	To be estimated
α₁	Coefficient of the weather-driven model	To be estimated
α₂	Magnitude of the seasonal effect	To be estimated
ω	Seasonality parameter	To be estimated
σ	Variance of observation noise	To be estimated

¹CISDCP: China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention (http://www.phsciencedata.cn/Share/)
²MODIS: Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (https://modis.gsfc.nasa.gov/)
³TRMM: Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (https://gpm.nasa.gov/trmm)

ISSN: 2049-9957