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Table 1 Descriptions and values of model parameters and variables

From: Inference and prediction of malaria transmission dynamics using time series data

Parameter Description Values
yt Output of the data-driven stochastic model at time step t CISDCP
xt Output of the weather-driven model at time step t Hidden
T Average temperature MODIS
R Average rainfall TRMM
fu Number of degree days needed for mosquito maturation 36.5 [40]
gu Threshold below which gonotrophic development ceases 9.9 [40]
γ Probability of a mosquitoes surviving through a gonotrophic cycle 0.5 [40]
fn Number of degree days required for parasite development 105 [33]
gn Threshold below which parasite development ceases 18°C [40]
h Human blood index 0.7 [40]
g Per-capita daily death rate of a mosquito  
u Gonotrophic cycle length Equation 8
a Human feeding rate a=h/u
p Probability of a mosquito survive through one whole day p=eg=γ1/u
n Sporogonic cycle length Equation 9
m Mosquito density per person m=10R [40]
b Transmission efficiency from mosquito to human  
c Transmission efficiency from human to mosquito  
β Mutual transmission efficiency: β=bc To be estimated
r Human recovery rate To be estimated
α1 Coefficient of the weather-driven model To be estimated
α2 Magnitude of the seasonal effect To be estimated
ω Seasonality parameter To be estimated
σ Variance of observation noise To be estimated
  1. 1CISDCP: China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention (
  2. 2MODIS: Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (
  3. 3TRMM: Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (