Table 1 Parameter estimates for COVID-19 in the mainland of China

β_1a ∈ [0.01, 10]

Transmission rate (day^− 1 individual^− 1)

1.0009

0.1945

Estimated

β_1b ∈ [0.01, 10]

Transmission rate

1.3754

1.076

Estimated

β_1c ∈ [0.01, 10]

Transmission rate

1.0967

0.0501

Estimated

β_1d ∈ [0.01, 10]

Transmission rate

0.0809

0.0371

Estimated

β_2a ∈ [0.01, 10]

Transmission rate

2.2783

1.0798

Estimated

β_2b ∈ [0.01, 10]

Transmission rate

1.4721

0.6584

Estimated

β_2c ∈ [0.01, 10]

Transmission rate

0.289

0.0176

Estimated

β_2d ∈ [0.01, 10]

Transmission rate

0.0189

0.0091

Estimated

δ₁ = δ₂ ∈ [0.0333, 0.1]

Recovery rate (day^− 1)

0.0618

0.0094

Estimated

γ₁ = γ₂ ∈ [0.1, 0.3333]

Detection rate (day^− 1)

0.2269

0.0457

Estimated

ω_a ∈ [0.0027, 0.03]

Migration rate (day^− 1)

0.0033

0.0002

Estimated

ω_b ∈ [0.0027, 0.03]

Migration rate (day^− 1)

0.0029

0.0006

Estimated

l_a ∈ [0.1, 1]

Infectivity reduction factor

0.2001

0.0152

Estimated

l_b ∈ [0.1, 1]

Infectivity reduction factor

0.1489

0.0164

Estimated

l_c ∈ [0.1, 1]

Infectivity reduction factor

0.0587

0.0159

Estimated

l_d

Infectivity reduction factor

0.0001

–

Fixed

η₁ = η₂ ∈ [0.01, 0.1]

Self-healing ratio

0.0335

0.0056

Estimated

k ∈ [0.1, 1]

Infectivity reduction factor (day^− 1)

0.3301

0.0678

Estimated

α₁ = α₂

Transition rate of exposed (day^− 1)

0.1724

–

[45]

ρ₁ = ρ₂

Proportion of the infectious

0.8683

–

[33]

d

Disease-induced death rate (day^− 1)

1.7826 × 10 ^− 5

–

[33]

S₁ (0)

Initial susceptible population

1.10 × 10 ⁷

–

[46, 47]

E₁ (0) ∈ [0, 10 ⁵]

Initial exposed population

12.2544

4.3719

Estimated

I₁ (0) ∈ [0, 10 ⁵]

Initial infected population

0.1208

0.0868

Estimated

Q₁ (0)

Initial isolated population

41

–

Data

R₁ (0)

Initial recovered population

2

–

Data

S₂ (0) ∈ [10 ³,1.3 × 10 ⁹]

Initial susceptible population

1.23 × 10 ⁸

1.31 × 10 ⁵

Estimated

E₂ (0) ∈ [0,10 ⁴]

Initial exposed population

0.0184

0.0094

Estimated

I₂ (0) ∈ [0,10 ⁵]

Initial infected population

0.0154

0.0087

Estimated

Q₂ (0)

Initial isolated population

0

–

Data

R₂ (0)

Initial recovered population

0

–

Data