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Table 2 Estimated reductions in influenza transmissibility during school winter breaks in four different scenarios via the SIRS model

From: Increased urbanization reduced the effectiveness of school closures on seasonal influenza epidemics in China

 

Percentage reductions in influenza transmissibility during winter school breaks

Low prevalence (95% CI)

High prevalence (95% CI)

Scenario 1

5.0% (1.9–7.8%)

8.0% (7.2–9.1%)

Scenario 2

11.9% (9.0–14.5%)

14.6% (13.9–15.7%)

Scenario 3

10.3% (7.3–12.9%)

13.0% (12.3–14.1%)

Scenario 4

6.3% (3.2–9.0%)

9.2% (8.4–10.3%)

  1. SIRS, Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible; CI, Confidential interval