Fig. 1

Comparison of previous and new model outputs. This figure panel shows the results of fitting to case data during A 2000–2013 using the previous model, B 2000–2013 using the new model, and C 2000–2019 using the new model. The solid black lines show the case data. Grey box and whiskers indicate years of model fits (median for centre line and 95% credible intervals for whiskers) and green box and whiskers denote model projections based on known active screening coverage