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Fig. 2 | Infectious Diseases of Poverty

Fig. 2

From: Update of transmission modelling and projections of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in the Mandoul focus, Chad

Fig. 2

Projections to 2030. The ensemble model fitted to data during 2000–2019 was used to make projections under five different strategies. The baseline strategy, MeanAS + VC with imperfect specificity (\(\sim 99.93\%\)), is denoted by grey boxes. With specificity improved to 100% from 2021, the strategy MeanAS + VC is denoted by purple boxes. Blue and red boxes are MeanAS and MaxAS strategies with AS screening specificity switching to 100% and stopping VC from 2021. Finally, Stop 2021 under which both AS and VC stop in 2021 is shown by the green boxes. All simulations assume PS remains at the level as estimated for 2019 and continues indefinitely. The top panel shows the level of AS assumed in the different projections, the second row shows the active case predictions, the third shows the passive case predictions and the forth shows the expected amount of new infections. The bottom row shows the probability of EOT for each year. AS: active screening; VC: vector control; Max: maximum; EOT: elimination of transmission

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