Update of transmission modelling and projections of gambiense human African trypanosomiasis in the Mandoul focus, Chad

Table 1 Comparison of the fits of previous and new models

Changed items	Previous model	New model fit for 2000–2013	New model fit for 2000-2019
Active screening specificity	100%	Estimated from data	Estimated from data
False positives in active screening	No FP	FP in stage 1 only	FP in either stage
Passive detection improvement rate	Doubling of stage 1 and stage 2 PS detection rates from 2015	Doubling of stage 1 and stage 2 PS detection rates from 2015	Stage 1 and stage 2 PS detection rates from 2015 were estimated from the data
Underreporting	Both stages	Stage 2 only	Stage 2 only
Vector control reduction after 4 months	99%	99%	Total reduction estimated from the data

We describe the key differences between the previous Warwick gHAT model of Mahamat et al. [12] and the present study—the “new model”—when considering fits to previously available data (2000–2013) or the extended data sets (2000–2019)
FP false positive, PS passive screening

ISSN: 2049-9957