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Table 1 Description and ranges of OpenMalaria simulation interventions and transmission settings

From: Leveraging mathematical models of disease dynamics and machine learning to improve development of novel malaria interventions

 

Intervention

Coverage

Initial efficacy

Half-life or duration (years)

Decay type

 

Preventing infection

Simulated malaria intervention properties

Anti-infective vaccine

0–1

0.3–0.95

0.5–5

Weibull (k = 0.8)

(Sigmoidal)

 

Anti-infective monoclonal antibody

0–1

0.3–0.95

0.167–0.667

Weibull (k = 3)

(Biphasic)

 

Blood stage clearance

 

Antimalarial drugs

0–1

0.8–1

0–0.1667

Exponential

 

Transmission blocking

 

Vaccine

0–1

0.3–0.95

0.5–5

Weibull (k = 0.8)

(Biphasic)

 

Preprandial killing effect (affects indoor mosquito biting)

 

Eave tubes

0–1

0.3–0.99

0.5–5

Weibull (k = 3)

(Sigmoidal)

 

Preprandial and postprandial killing effect (affects outdoor mosquito biting)

 

Attractive targeted sugar baits

0–1

0.7–0.99

0.167–0.667

Step

Simulated malaria transmission settings

EIR range: 1–25, representing a PfPR0–99 of 13–88% and a PfPR2–10 of 7.2–74.0%

Case management (baseline scenario) range: 0–0.8, corresponding to a probability range of seeking care within 5 days from the onset of fever of 0–0.5

Seasonality levels

1. High seasonal setting with one transmission peak over a year

2. Perennial setting with constant yearly transmission

Proportion of indoor-biting mosquitoes, out of total indoor and outdoor biting mosquitoes:

3. High (0.8)

4. Medium (0.5)

5. Low (0.2)

  1. Interventions and transmission settings were defined through consultation with product development stakeholders. Parameters varied within the OpenMalaria simulations include characteristics of applied malaria interventions (see Additional file 1: Fig. S2.2 for visual ranges of these parameters), as well as malaria transmission setting characteristics.
  2. EIR entomological inoculation rate, PfPR0–99 prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in all ages, PfPR2–10 prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria in 2-to-10-year-olds