Fig. 2

Schematic representation of component or black box-based strategies for infectious disease species distribution modeling. In well-known systems, disease models should aim to model each component driving the life cycle of the pathogen to better characterize its distribution (A; [11, 12]). However, for Oropouche virus (OROV), there are multiple gaps in knowledge to actually make assumptions about its sylvatic cycle, specifically, reservoirs and vectors driving epizootics are poorly represented in the scientific literature (B; [4]). For these cases, the presence of human outbreaks allows a black box modeling where we assume that detected human cases represent the manifestation of the entire virus cycle despite the unknowns surrounding its components. Silhouettes developed with Adobe Photoshop Elements