Table 6 Global annual projections of numbers of tablets needed under scenarios 1, 2 and 3
Year | Scenario 1 Total no. of tablets (in thousands) with no consideration of impact of deworming programmes on prevalence reduction | Scenario 2 Total no. of tablets (in thousands) with 36% reduction in no. of tablets needed following prevalence reduction every five years of PC implementation with effective coverage | Scenario 3 Total no. of tablets (in thousands) with progressive phasing out of drug donations. Results of univariate sensitivity analysis in parenthesis. |
|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 591 751 | 546 603 | 546 603 |
2018 | 635 958 | 585 432 | 585 432 |
2019 | 674 838 | 534 948 | 534 948 |
2020 | 703 027 | 561 139 | 561 139 |
2021 | 728 749 | 584 828 | 584 828 |
2022 | 754 452 | 577 459 | 370 224 (284 943–450 908) |
2023 | 780 215 | 594 601 | 377 245 (290 609–461 146) |
2024 | 805 194 | 540 395 | 325 958 (267 142–402 721) |
2025 | 828 508 | 559 632 | 335 943 (276 153–415 993) |
2026 | 844 095 | 551 456 | 333 383 (272 740–393 256) |
2027 | 859 071 | 489 806 | 300 247 (240 639–348 937) |
2028 | 874 104 | 496 910 | 304 582 (244 205–354 161) |
2029 | 889 459 | 470 456 | 288 683 (228 751–338 970) |
2030 | 905 146 | 460 526 | 231 507 (215 746–331 983) |