Fig. 5

Epidemiologic curve of Belarus as an illustration of how risk assessment changes over time, 28 February 2020 to 8 May 2020. Belarus reached the SN (12 cases) on 12 March, for an ST of 14 days (below the 18-day mean ST). The average of its first 3 DTs (all DTs marked on the curve as black diamonds) was 5.7 days, placing Belarus initially in the moderately low risk (yellow) quadrant of the ST/DT Model. However, as DT began to shorten, Belarus crossed over into the ST/DT Model’s high risk (red) quadrant and the Minister of Health requested assistance from WHO. Although Belarus had been testing suspected cases; isolating confirmed cases, first level contacts, and new arrivals from COVID-19 affected countries; and partially implementing voluntary social distancing while scaling up hospital capacity, these measures had clearly not been enough. Key recommendations to Belarus by WHO included dramatic increase in mandatory social distancing (e.g., cancelling events and gatherings, implementing remote work and school, closing non-essential businesses, restricting non-essential movement), scale up of testing (i.e., expanding testing formats, ensuring quality of test kits, and strengthening entry screening), and strengthening of health system infrastructure [20]. A notable lengthening in DT has since been observed, returning Belarus to moderately low risk in the ST/DT Model