Skip to main content

Table 2 Different control measure intensities and prediction results

From: The effect of control measures on COVID-19 transmission in Italy: Comparison with Guangdong province in China

  Parameter assumption Peak day Maximum confirmed cases
cb=4, r1=0.03 δIf=0.5, r2=0.05, τ=0 79 1.54×105
  δIf=0.5, r2=0.05, τ=5 79 2.42×105
  δIf=0.5, r2=0.05, τ=10 80 4.00×105
  δIf=0.5r2=0.1τ=0 76 1.08×105
  δIf=0.5r2=0.1τ=5 77 1.86×105
  δIf=0.5r2=0.1τ=10 77 3.32×105
  δIf=0.5r2=0.5τ=0 76 1.03×104
  δIf=0.5r2=0.5τ=5 76 1.75×105
  δIf=0.5r2=0.5τ=10 77 3.21×105
  δIf=δI0r2=0.05τ=0 144 3.36×106
  δIf=δI0r2=0.05τ=5 144 5.38×106
  δIf=δI0r2=0.05τ=10 144 9.31×106
  δIf=0.2r2=0.05τ=0 181 8.34×106
  δIf=0.2r2=0.05τ=5 181 1.29×107
  δIf=0.2r2=0.05τ=10 181 2.51×107
cb=4, r1=0.05 δIf=0.5, r2=0.05τ=0 60 5.85×104
  δIf=0.5, r2=0.05τ=5 61 1.05×105
  δIf=0.5, r2=0.05τ=10 63 1.99×105
  δIf=0.5r2=0.1τ=0 57 4.81×104
  δIf=0.5r2=0.1τ=5 59 4.81×104
  δIf=0.5r2=0.1τ=10 61 8.79×104
  δIf=0.5r2=0.5τ=0 56 1.81×105
  δIf=δI0r2=0.05τ=0 101 2.96×105
  δIf=δI0r2=0.05τ=5 101 5.77×105
  δIf=δI0r2=0.05τ=10 101 1.21×106
  δIf=0.2r2=0.05τ=0 127 5.11×105
  δIf=0.2r2=0.05τ=5 127 9.82×105
  δIf=0.2r2=0.05τ=10 127 2.07×106
cb=4, r1=0.1 δIf=0.5, r2=0.05τ=0 48 3.12×104
  δIf=0.5, r2=0.05τ=5 52 6.69×104
  δIf=0.5, r2=0.05τ=10 55 1.41×105
  δIf=0.5r2=0.1τ=0 46 2.85×104
  δIf=0.5r2=0.1τ=5 50 6.26×104
  δIf=0.5r2=0.1τ=10 54 1.35×105
  δIf=0.5r2=0.5τ=0 46 2.75×104
  δIf=0.5r2=0.5τ=5 49 6.15×104
  δIf=0.5r2=0.5τ=10 54 1.33×105
  δIf=δI0r2=0.05τ=0 66 5.32×104
  δIf=δI0r2=0.05τ=5 71 1.56×105
  δIf=δI0r2=0.05τ=10 76 4.64×105
  δIf=0.2r2=0.05τ=0 83 6.78×104
  δIf=0.2r2=0.05τ=5 88 2.07×105
  δIf=0.2r2=0.05τ=10 89 6.10×105
cb=1, r1=0.5 δIf=0.5, r2=0.05τ=0 46 2.61×104
  δIf=0.5, r2=0.05τ=5 50 6.00×104
  δIf=0.5, r2=0.05τ=10 54 1.34×105
  δIf=0.5r2=0.1τ=0 44 2.45×104
  δIf=0.5r2=0.1τ=5 48 5.69×104
  δIf=0.5r2=0.1τ=10 53 1.28×105
  δIf=0.5r2=0.5τ=0 43 2.39×104
  δIf=0.5r2=0.5τ=5 48 5.60×104
  δIf=0.5r2=0.5τ=10 53 1.27×105