Table 2 Different control measure intensities and prediction results
Parameter assumption | Peak day | Maximum confirmed cases | |
|---|---|---|---|
cb=4, r1=0.03 | δIf=0.5, r2=0.05, τ=0 | 79 | 1.54×105 |
δIf=0.5, r2=0.05, τ=5 | 79 | 2.42×105 | |
δIf=0.5, r2=0.05, τ=10 | 80 | 4.00×105 | |
δIf=0.5r2=0.1τ=0 | 76 | 1.08×105 | |
δIf=0.5r2=0.1τ=5 | 77 | 1.86×105 | |
δIf=0.5r2=0.1τ=10 | 77 | 3.32×105 | |
δIf=0.5r2=0.5τ=0 | 76 | 1.03×104 | |
δIf=0.5r2=0.5τ=5 | 76 | 1.75×105 | |
δIf=0.5r2=0.5τ=10 | 77 | 3.21×105 | |
δIf=δI0r2=0.05τ=0 | 144 | 3.36×106 | |
δIf=δI0r2=0.05τ=5 | 144 | 5.38×106 | |
δIf=δI0r2=0.05τ=10 | 144 | 9.31×106 | |
δIf=0.2r2=0.05τ=0 | 181 | 8.34×106 | |
δIf=0.2r2=0.05τ=5 | 181 | 1.29×107 | |
δIf=0.2r2=0.05τ=10 | 181 | 2.51×107 | |
cb=4, r1=0.05 | δIf=0.5, r2=0.05τ=0 | 60 | 5.85×104 |
δIf=0.5, r2=0.05τ=5 | 61 | 1.05×105 | |
δIf=0.5, r2=0.05τ=10 | 63 | 1.99×105 | |
δIf=0.5r2=0.1τ=0 | 57 | 4.81×104 | |
δIf=0.5r2=0.1τ=5 | 59 | 4.81×104 | |
δIf=0.5r2=0.1τ=10 | 61 | 8.79×104 | |
δIf=0.5r2=0.5τ=0 | 56 | 1.81×105 | |
δIf=δI0r2=0.05τ=0 | 101 | 2.96×105 | |
δIf=δI0r2=0.05τ=5 | 101 | 5.77×105 | |
δIf=δI0r2=0.05τ=10 | 101 | 1.21×106 | |
δIf=0.2r2=0.05τ=0 | 127 | 5.11×105 | |
δIf=0.2r2=0.05τ=5 | 127 | 9.82×105 | |
δIf=0.2r2=0.05τ=10 | 127 | 2.07×106 | |
cb=4, r1=0.1 | δIf=0.5, r2=0.05τ=0 | 48 | 3.12×104 |
δIf=0.5, r2=0.05τ=5 | 52 | 6.69×104 | |
δIf=0.5, r2=0.05τ=10 | 55 | 1.41×105 | |
δIf=0.5r2=0.1τ=0 | 46 | 2.85×104 | |
δIf=0.5r2=0.1τ=5 | 50 | 6.26×104 | |
δIf=0.5r2=0.1τ=10 | 54 | 1.35×105 | |
δIf=0.5r2=0.5τ=0 | 46 | 2.75×104 | |
δIf=0.5r2=0.5τ=5 | 49 | 6.15×104 | |
δIf=0.5r2=0.5τ=10 | 54 | 1.33×105 | |
δIf=δI0r2=0.05τ=0 | 66 | 5.32×104 | |
δIf=δI0r2=0.05τ=5 | 71 | 1.56×105 | |
δIf=δI0r2=0.05τ=10 | 76 | 4.64×105 | |
δIf=0.2r2=0.05τ=0 | 83 | 6.78×104 | |
δIf=0.2r2=0.05τ=5 | 88 | 2.07×105 | |
δIf=0.2r2=0.05τ=10 | 89 | 6.10×105 | |
cb=1, r1=0.5 | δIf=0.5, r2=0.05τ=0 | 46 | 2.61×104 |
δIf=0.5, r2=0.05τ=5 | 50 | 6.00×104 | |
δIf=0.5, r2=0.05τ=10 | 54 | 1.34×105 | |
δIf=0.5r2=0.1τ=0 | 44 | 2.45×104 | |
δIf=0.5r2=0.1τ=5 | 48 | 5.69×104 | |
δIf=0.5r2=0.1τ=10 | 53 | 1.28×105 | |
δIf=0.5r2=0.5τ=0 | 43 | 2.39×104 | |
δIf=0.5r2=0.5τ=5 | 48 | 5.60×104 | |
δIf=0.5r2=0.5τ=10 | 53 | 1.27×105 |