Table 3 Results of scenario simulations on two outcomes: magnitude of transmission and endpoint of transmission
Magnitude of transmission | Endpoint of transmission | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Scenarios simulated | Number of cases (95% CI) | Relative increase fold (95% CI) | Number of cases in target-population (95% CI) | Relative increase fold (95% CI) | Date of containment (Relative delay) |
Timing of initiation comprehensive measures | |||||
Reality: Delayed 0 days | 368 | - | 368 | July 10 | |
Scenario 1: Delayed 3 days | 1104 (947–1261) | 3.0 (2.6–3.4) | 1104 (947–1261) | 3.0 (2.6–3.4) | August 10 (31 days) |
Scenario 2: Delayed 7 days | 2768 (2360–3176) | 7.5 (6.4–8.6) | 2768 (2360–3176) | 7.5 (6.4–8.6) | August 29 (50 days) |
Scenario 3: Delayed 14 days | 10,411 (8549–12,272) | 28.2 (23.2–33.3) | 10 411 (8549–12 272) | 28.2 (23.2–33.3) | September 25 (77 days) |
Management of Key Population | |||||
Reality: | 368 | - | 224 | July 10 | |
Scenario 1: No quarantine | 1,969 (1,658–2,280) | 5.5 (4.5–6.2) | 1825 (1514–2136) | 8.2 (6.8–9.5) | September 21 (73 days) |
Scenario 2: Quarantine high-medium risk | 640 (536–744) | 1.7 (1.5–2.0) | 496 (392–600) | 2.2 (1.8–2.7) | August 18 (39 days) |
Quarantine of traced close contacts | |||||
Reality: Centralized and home quarantine | 368 | 42 | July 10 | ||
Scenario 1: No quarantine | 727 (609–844) | 2.0 (1.7–2.3) | 401 (283–518) | 9.5 (6.7–12.3) | August 23 (44 days) |
Scenario 2: Centralized quarantine for all | 361 (330–392) | 1.0 (0.9–1.1) | 35 (4–66) | 0.8 (0.1–1.6) | July 5 (-5 days) |
Scenario 3: Home quarantine for all | 382 (341–423) | 1.0 (0.9–1.2) | 56 (15–97) | 1.3 (0.3–2.3) | July 14 (4 days) |
Expanded nucleic acid screening in the general population | |||||
Reality: | 368 | 28 | |||
Scenario 1: Accelerated 7 days | 332 (305–358) | 0.9 (0.8–1.0) | -8 (-35–18) | 0 | July 7 (-3 days) |
Scenario 2: Accelerated 3 days | 352 (319–384) | 1.0 (0.9–1.0) | 12 (-21–44) | 0.4 (0–1.6) | July 8 (-2 days) |
Scenario 3: Delayed 3 days | 429 (377 to 481) | 1.2 (1.0–1.3) | 89 (37–141) | 3.2 (1.3–5) | July 18 (8 days) |
Scenario 4: Delayed 7 days | 487 (405 to 568) | 1.3 (1.1–1.5) | 147 (65–228) | 5.3 (2.3–8.1) | July 27 (17 days) |
Scenario 5: No Nucleic Acid Screening | 603 (516 to 690) | 1.6 (1.4–1.8) | 263 (176–350) | 9.4 (6.3–12.5) | August 11 (32 days) |