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Table 3 Results of scenario simulations on two outcomes: magnitude of transmission and endpoint of transmission

From: Coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak in Beijing’s Xinfadi Market, China: a modeling study to inform future resurgence response

  Magnitude of transmission Endpoint of transmission
Scenarios simulated Number of cases (95% CI) Relative increase fold (95% CI) Number of cases in target-population (95% CI) Relative increase fold (95% CI) Date of containment (Relative delay)
Timing of initiation comprehensive measures
 Reality: Delayed 0 days 368 - 368   July 10
 Scenario 1: Delayed 3 days 1104 (947–1261) 3.0 (2.6–3.4) 1104 (947–1261) 3.0 (2.6–3.4) August 10 (31 days)
 Scenario 2: Delayed 7 days 2768 (2360–3176) 7.5 (6.4–8.6) 2768 (2360–3176) 7.5 (6.4–8.6) August 29 (50 days)
 Scenario 3: Delayed 14 days 10,411 (8549–12,272) 28.2 (23.2–33.3) 10 411 (8549–12 272) 28.2 (23.2–33.3) September 25 (77 days)
Management of Key Population
 Reality: 368 - 224   July 10
 Scenario 1: No quarantine 1,969 (1,658–2,280) 5.5 (4.5–6.2) 1825 (1514–2136) 8.2 (6.8–9.5) September 21 (73 days)
 Scenario 2: Quarantine high-medium risk 640 (536–744) 1.7 (1.5–2.0) 496 (392–600) 2.2 (1.8–2.7) August 18 (39 days)
Quarantine of traced close contacts
 Reality: Centralized and home quarantine 368   42   July 10
  Scenario 1: No quarantine 727 (609–844) 2.0 (1.7–2.3) 401 (283–518) 9.5 (6.7–12.3) August 23 (44 days)
Scenario 2: Centralized quarantine for all 361 (330–392) 1.0 (0.9–1.1) 35 (4–66) 0.8 (0.1–1.6) July 5 (-5 days)
 Scenario 3: Home quarantine for all 382 (341–423) 1.0 (0.9–1.2) 56 (15–97) 1.3 (0.3–2.3) July 14 (4 days)
Expanded nucleic acid screening in the general population
 Reality: 368   28   
 Scenario 1: Accelerated 7 days 332 (305–358) 0.9 (0.8–1.0) -8 (-35–18) 0 July 7 (-3 days)
 Scenario 2: Accelerated 3 days 352 (319–384) 1.0 (0.9–1.0) 12 (-21–44) 0.4 (0–1.6) July 8 (-2 days)
 Scenario 3: Delayed 3 days 429 (377 to 481) 1.2 (1.0–1.3) 89 (37–141) 3.2 (1.3–5) July 18 (8 days)
 Scenario 4: Delayed 7 days 487 (405 to 568) 1.3 (1.1–1.5) 147 (65–228) 5.3 (2.3–8.1) July 27 (17 days)
 Scenario 5: No Nucleic Acid Screening 603 (516 to 690) 1.6 (1.4–1.8) 263 (176–350) 9.4 (6.3–12.5) August 11 (32 days)
  1. CI Confidence interval