|
Timing of initiation comprehensive measures
|
|
Reality: Delayed 0 days
|
368
|
-
|
368
| |
July 10
|
|
Scenario 1: Delayed 3 days
|
1104 (947–1261)
|
3.0 (2.6–3.4)
|
1104 (947–1261)
|
3.0 (2.6–3.4)
|
August 10 (31 days)
|
|
Scenario 2: Delayed 7 days
|
2768 (2360–3176)
|
7.5 (6.4–8.6)
|
2768 (2360–3176)
|
7.5 (6.4–8.6)
|
August 29 (50 days)
|
|
Scenario 3: Delayed 14 days
|
10,411 (8549–12,272)
|
28.2 (23.2–33.3)
|
10 411 (8549–12 272)
|
28.2 (23.2–33.3)
|
September 25 (77 days)
|
|
Management of Key Population
|
|
Reality:
|
368
|
-
|
224
| |
July 10
|
|
Scenario 1: No quarantine
|
1,969 (1,658–2,280)
|
5.5 (4.5–6.2)
|
1825 (1514–2136)
|
8.2 (6.8–9.5)
|
September 21 (73 days)
|
|
Scenario 2: Quarantine high-medium risk
|
640 (536–744)
|
1.7 (1.5–2.0)
|
496 (392–600)
|
2.2 (1.8–2.7)
|
August 18 (39 days)
|
|
Quarantine of traced close contacts
|
|
Reality: Centralized and home quarantine
|
368
| |
42
| |
July 10
|
|
Scenario 1: No quarantine
|
727 (609–844)
|
2.0 (1.7–2.3)
|
401 (283–518)
|
9.5 (6.7–12.3)
|
August 23 (44 days)
|
|
Scenario 2: Centralized quarantine for all
|
361 (330–392)
|
1.0 (0.9–1.1)
|
35 (4–66)
|
0.8 (0.1–1.6)
|
July 5 (-5 days)
|
|
Scenario 3: Home quarantine for all
|
382 (341–423)
|
1.0 (0.9–1.2)
|
56 (15–97)
|
1.3 (0.3–2.3)
|
July 14 (4 days)
|
|
Expanded nucleic acid screening in the general population
|
|
Reality:
|
368
| |
28
| | |
|
Scenario 1: Accelerated 7 days
|
332 (305–358)
|
0.9 (0.8–1.0)
|
-8 (-35–18)
|
0
|
July 7 (-3 days)
|
|
Scenario 2: Accelerated 3 days
|
352 (319–384)
|
1.0 (0.9–1.0)
|
12 (-21–44)
|
0.4 (0–1.6)
|
July 8 (-2 days)
|
|
Scenario 3: Delayed 3 days
|
429 (377 to 481)
|
1.2 (1.0–1.3)
|
89 (37–141)
|
3.2 (1.3–5)
|
July 18 (8 days)
|
|
Scenario 4: Delayed 7 days
|
487 (405 to 568)
|
1.3 (1.1–1.5)
|
147 (65–228)
|
5.3 (2.3–8.1)
|
July 27 (17 days)
|
|
Scenario 5: No Nucleic Acid Screening
|
603 (516 to 690)
|
1.6 (1.4–1.8)
|
263 (176–350)
|
9.4 (6.3–12.5)
|
August 11 (32 days)
|
