Fig. 5

The COVID-19 daily incidence over time in Jilin province, China. The blue circle represents observed data (confirmed + asymptomatic, from March 1 to April 1, 2022). The solid orange line and shaded area represent the median and 95% confidence interval of the model simulations from March 1 to April 30, 2022, based on the parameter estimated from data fitting. The solid green line and shaded area represent the median and 95% confidence interval of the scenario of a 90% adherence rate to citywide testing in Jilin and tracing 90% primary contact and secondary contact in 24 h. The black dot lines separate the different stages considering the change of control measurements. Stage 1: Early stage of the epidemic; Stage 2: control stage with CTTI (strict control measures, completion of citywide testing and contact tracing in 48 h). The blue dot line separates the model validation and projections