Fig. 3

Effectiveness of mpox border screening policies under two assumed scenarios. a Number of total detected mpox cases under Scenario 1 (corresponding to China’s pandemic quarantine policy), with proportion of self-reported epidemiological links ranging from 10 to 100%, and days of quarantine ranging from 0 to 21. b Number of total detected mpox cases under Scenario 2 (a pre-pandemic scenario), with proportion of self-reported epidemiological links ranging from 10 to 100%, and days of medical observation ranging from 0 to 21. c Number of total detected mpox cases with 50% self-reported epidemiological links with mpox cases under days of quarantine or medical observation from 0 to 21. In panel c, the horizonal lines indicate the mean, with dark and light shades indicating 50% CI, and 95% CI