Fig. 4

Estimated outbreak probability. a the outbreak probability of one mpox case introduced into the MSM community in Chinese mainland, with R₀ ranges from 1.1 to 2, and dispersion parameter k ranges from 0.1 to 1.2. In panel a, the dashed lines and dot refer to R₀ = 1.8 and k = 0.88, a plausible guess of mpox transmissibility in Chinese mainland. b the outbreak probability as a function of the number of seeding infectors ranges from 1 to 10, with R₀ = 1.8 and k = 0.88